2026-27 SEASON
Championship Forecast — 2026-27
Our Pi-Ratings model plays out the rest of every league's season tens of thousands of times. Below is each team's championship rate, and how it changes month to month.
UEFA Club Competitions
The 36-team league phase, played out to the final tens of thousands of times. The first three columns are the league-phase finish: the top eight go straight to the round of 16, ninth to twenty-fourth into the knockout play-off, the rest are out. Then come the champion columns — one per checkpoint, a new dated one after every matchday, oldest first and newest last.
🏆UEFA Champions League
36 teams · 5 champion checkpoints
| # | Team | Top 8 | 9th–24th | Out | Aug 27Draw | Sep 10MD1 | Oct 14MD2 | Oct 21MD3 | Nov 4MD4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal1 | 84.5% | 15.5% | 0% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 13.7%▲1.1 |
| 2 | Paris Saint-Germain1 | 92.0% | 8.0% | 0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.7%▲0.4 |
| 3 | Bayern Munich1 | 52.2% | 46.9% | 0.9% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.4%▲1.2 |
| 4 | Real Madrid1 | 92.6% | 7.4% | 0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.5%▲0.7 |
| 5 | Manchester City1 | 53.3% | 46.1% | 0.6% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.4%▲1.2 |
| 6 | Barcelona1 | 65.6% | 34.2% | 0.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.2%▲0.2 |
| 7 | Liverpool1 | 54.2% | 45.3% | 0.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.0%▼1.4 |
| 8 | Aston Villa2 | 49.7% | 49.6% | 0.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.1%▼1.2 |
| 9 | Inter Milan1 | 16.9% | 73.3% | 9.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.9%▲0.9 |
| 10 | Sporting CP2 | 34.9% | 63.1% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.5%▲0.6 |
| 11 | Manchester United2 | 12.2% | 74.0% | 13.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.1%▲0.3 |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund2 | 32.6% | 65.8% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% |
| 13 | Club Brugge2 | 45.8% | 53.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6%▲0.3 |
| 14 | Como4 | 42.6% | 56.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0%▲0.5 |
| 15 | Real Betis2 | 31.8% | 66.3% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.7%▼0.7 |
| 16 | Atlético Madrid1 | 2.0% | 62.5% | 35.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.5%▼0.9 |
| 17 | Roma2 | 2.5% | 59.2% | 38.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.3%▼0.4 |
| 18 | VfB Stuttgart4 | 15.3% | 73.9% | 10.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.3%▼0.4 |
| 19 | Porto2 | 1.0% | 50.6% | 48.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.9%▲0.3 |
| 20 | PSV Eindhoven2 | 2.2% | 57.0% | 40.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.9%▼0.7 |
| 21 | Galatasaray3 | 6.1% | 70.8% | 23.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9%▲0.2 |
| 22 | Napoli3 | 1.0% | 50.5% | 48.4% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8%▼0.3 |
| 23 | RB Leipzig3 | 0.5% | 47.4% | 52.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.7%▼0.3 |
| 24 | Bodø/Glimt3 | 1.8% | 59.4% | 38.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.7%▼0.5 |
| 25 | Villarreal3 | 0.5% | 45.1% | 54.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6%▼0.5 |
| 26 | Fenerbahçe3 | 2.5% | 60.1% | 37.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6%▲0.2 |
| 27 | Lens4 | 0.2% | 27.6% | 72.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3%▼0.5 |
| 28 | Feyenoord3 | 0.2% | 33.6% | 66.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2%▼0.3 |
| 29 | Lille3 | 0% | 17.3% | 82.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 30 | Viking4 | 0.8% | 42.8% | 56.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 31 | AEK Athens4 | 0.2% | 28.2% | 71.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1%▼0.2 |
| 32 | LASK4 | 2.2% | 59.8% | 38.0% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| 33 | Slavia Prague4 | 0% | 8.5% | 91.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| 34 | Shakhtar Donetsk3 | 0.3% | 29.2% | 70.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava4 | 0% | 2.6% | 97.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% |
| 36 | Sabah4 | <0.1% | 8.4% | 91.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% |
Champion odds. Each column is a checkpoint struck on the date shown and never rewritten afterwards; the newest checkpoint is the last column.
🏆UEFA Europa League
36 teams · 5 champion checkpoints
| # | Team | Top 8 | 9th–24th | Out | Aug 28Draw | Sep 17MD1 | Oct 1MD2 | Oct 22MD3 | Nov 5MD4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bournemouth3 | 98.0% | 2.0% | 0% | 12.9% | 13.3% | 13.8% | 15.3% | 16.4%▲1.1 |
| 2 | Benfica1 | 96.8% | 3.2% | 0% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 12.0% |
| 3 | Juventus1 | 83.2% | 16.8% | 0% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.5%▲0.7 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen1 | 63.8% | 35.8% | 0.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 8.8%▼1.9 |
| 5 | Union Saint-Gilloise2 | 75.1% | 24.9% | 0% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.6%▲1.5 |
| 6 | Crystal Palace3 | 19.8% | 67.8% | 12.4% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.0%▼0.8 |
| 7 | Sunderland3 | 32.1% | 63.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.1%▼1.0 |
| 8 | Lyon1 | 32.0% | 63.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% |
| 9 | Olympiacos1 | 67.4% | 32.4% | 0.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.3%▲0.4 |
| 10 | Rennes2 | 22.8% | 68.0% | 9.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.5%▼0.2 |
| 11 | Ferencváros2 | 84.1% | 15.9% | 0% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.2%▲1.0 |
| 12 | Milan1 | 2.7% | 55.8% | 41.5% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.4%▼1.7 |
| 13 | Real Sociedad1 | 10.2% | 69.1% | 20.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| 14 | TSG Hoffenheim4 | 4.7% | 62.6% | 32.6% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.1%▲0.3 |
| 15 | Marseille1 | 2.1% | 54.1% | 43.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.6%▲0.7 |
| 16 | Dinamo Zagreb2 | 16.9% | 71.9% | 11.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.6%▲0.7 |
| 17 | Beşiktaş4 | 17.2% | 71.9% | 11.0% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.6%▼0.2 |
| 18 | Celta Vigo3 | 1.1% | 49.4% | 49.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.3%▼0.6 |
| 19 | Anderlecht2 | 11.3% | 69.9% | 18.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.2%▲0.5 |
| 20 | AZ1 | 12.2% | 72.2% | 15.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2%▼0.4 |
| 21 | NEC4 | 18.4% | 70.0% | 11.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.1%▲0.3 |
| 22 | Sparta Prague2 | 2.5% | 53.6% | 43.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.6%▼0.3 |
| 23 | Celtic2 | 0.9% | 35.1% | 63.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5%▲0.1 |
| 24 | Red Bull Salzburg2 | 1.8% | 47.8% | 50.4% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5%▼0.1 |
| 25 | Viktoria Plzeň2 | 0.3% | 27.3% | 72.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3%▲0.1 |
| 26 | Omonia3 | 4.6% | 64.1% | 31.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3%▼0.2 |
| 27 | Celje3 | 1.8% | 45.5% | 52.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3%▲0.1 |
| 28 | Levski Sofia4 | 6.9% | 73.9% | 19.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 29 | Lech Poznań3 | <0.1% | 19.2% | 80.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2%▼0.2 |
| 30 | Sturm Graz3 | 0.9% | 40.0% | 59.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2%▼0.2 |
| 31 | Jagiellonia Białystok3 | 0.3% | 23.5% | 76.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1%▼0.1 |
| 32 | OFI4 | 4.5% | 62.3% | 33.2% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| 33 | Torreense4 | 3.6% | 56.5% | 39.9% | <0.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| 34 | Hapoel Be'er Sheva4 | 0% | 4.0% | 96.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 35 | Ararat-Armenia4 | 0% | 4.4% | 95.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% |
| 36 | Lillestrøm4 | 0% | 2.1% | 97.9% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% |
Champion odds. Each column is a checkpoint struck on the date shown and never rewritten afterwards; the newest checkpoint is the last column.
🏆UEFA Conference League
36 teams · 4 champion checkpoints
| # | Team | Top 8 | 9th–24th | Out | Aug 28Draw | Oct 15MD1 | Nov 5MD2 | Nov 26MD3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton & Hove Albion2 | 75.1% | 24.9% | <0.1% | 18.0% | 19.2% | 18.8% | 21.1%▲2.2 |
| 2 | Monaco1 | 88.9% | 11.1% | 0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.4%▲0.4 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg1 | 48.5% | 49.8% | 1.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.5%▲1.7 |
| 4 | Atalanta1 | 19.2% | 71.9% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 7.3%▼1.3 |
| 5 | Twente3 | 80.7% | 19.3% | 0% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.9%▲1.8 |
| 6 | Braga1 | 22.5% | 73.5% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.5%▼0.3 |
| 7 | Copenhagen1 | 49.1% | 50.6% | 0.3% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.8%▲0.1 |
| 8 | Ajax1 | 41.8% | 55.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4.3%▲1.4 |
| 9 | Panathinaikos2 | 59.0% | 41.0% | 0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.1%▲0.6 |
| 10 | Sint-Truiden4 | 41.1% | 58.1% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.3%▼0.4 |
| 11 | Trabzonspor4 | 31.8% | 64.5% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.8%▼0.5 |
| 12 | Brann4 | 42.2% | 57.3% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.8%▼0.5 |
| 13 | Red Star Belgrade2 | 10.5% | 75.5% | 14.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% |
| 14 | Mjällby AIF6 | 41.1% | 58.1% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.4%▲0.1 |
| 15 | Lugano3 | 72.4% | 27.6% | 0% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.3%▼0.2 |
| 16 | Nordsjælland5 | 2.2% | 62.5% | 35.3% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.0%▼0.6 |
| 17 | Midtjylland2 | <0.1% | 45.6% | 54.4% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.0%▼2.5 |
| 18 | Getafe3 | <0.1% | 56.3% | 43.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.0%▼0.9 |
| 19 | Universitatea Craiova4 | 29.7% | 69.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5%▲0.2 |
| 20 | Gent2 | 9.3% | 73.0% | 17.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.3%▼0.3 |
| 21 | Hajduk Split5 | 22.8% | 70.8% | 6.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.0%▼0.4 |
| 22 | AGF5 | 1.3% | 46.4% | 52.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.8%▼0.2 |
| 23 | Pafos2 | <0.1% | 38.1% | 61.9% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.7%▼0.4 |
| 24 | Thun6 | 4.1% | 59.1% | 36.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7%▲0.3 |
| 25 | Jablonec5 | 2.1% | 54.7% | 43.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5%▼0.1 |
| 26 | Heart of Midlothian4 | <0.1% | 33.8% | 66.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3%▼0.2 |
| 27 | Riga5 | 1.9% | 49.2% | 48.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 28 | CSKA Sofia6 | <0.1% | 30.3% | 69.7% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 29 | Kairat4 | 0.4% | 29.4% | 70.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 30 | Borac Banja Luka3 | 1.6% | 48.3% | 50.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 31 | Egnatia6 | 0.3% | 43.6% | 56.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 32 | KuPS3 | 0% | 6.9% | 93.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 33 | Inter Club d'Escaldes5 | 0% | 7.3% | 92.7% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% |
| 34 | Kauno Žalgiris6 | 0% | 8.0% | 92.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% |
| 35 | Lincoln Red Imps3 | 0.2% | 20.9% | 78.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% |
| 36 | Iberia 19996 | 0% | 7.3% | 92.7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Champion odds. Each column is a checkpoint struck on the date shown and never rewritten afterwards; the newest checkpoint is the last column.
🏴Premier League
8 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 56.2% | 56.2% | 62.7% | 38.4% | 55.2% |
| Manchester City | 21.9% | 21.9% | 25.3% | 55.4% | 37.9% |
| Brighton | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.9% |
| Liverpool | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% |
| Chelsea | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Brentford | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Bournemouth | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Leeds | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Newcastle | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Everton | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Manchester United | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aston Villa | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Coventry | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Crystal Palace | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fulham | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hull City | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ipswich | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sunderland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tottenham | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🇪🇸La Liga
9 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 58.2% | 58.2% | 60.6% | 97.0% | 93.9% |
| Real Madrid | 33.6% | 33.6% | 34.4% | 2.9% | 5.9% |
| Atletico Madrid | 7.1% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Real Betis | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Alaves | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Athletic Club | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Celta Vigo | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Deportivo La Coruna* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elche | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Espanyol | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Getafe | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Levante | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Malaga* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Osasuna | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Racing Santander* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rayo Vallecano | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Real Sociedad | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sevilla | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Valencia | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Villarreal | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
* Promoted this season or limited history in this league — the model gives it a cautious starting rating based on the league's own lower-percentile teams.
🇮🇹Serie A
9 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 38.9% | 42.0% |
| Inter | 22.1% | 22.1% | 23.6% | 33.0% | 33.1% |
| Como | 20.0% | 20.0% | 17.2% | 18.0% | 20.7% |
| Juventus | 42.9% | 42.9% | 41.9% | 8.3% | 1.6% |
| Lazio | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.5% |
| AC Milan | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| Atalanta | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Napoli | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Bologna | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cagliari | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fiorentina | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Frosinone | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Genoa | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lecce | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Monza | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parma | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sassuolo | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Torino | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Udinese | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Venezia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🇩🇪Bundesliga
7 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | 87.6% | 87.6% | 90.3% | 83.4% | 88.4% |
| Borussia Dortmund | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 11.0% | 7.9% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 6.1% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.3% |
| SC Freiburg | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| RB Leipzig | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Werder Bremen | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1. FC Köln | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| FC Augsburg | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| FC Schalke 04 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hamburger SV | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SV Elversberg | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Union Berlin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🇫🇷Ligue 1
8 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | 97.2% | 97.6% | 96.0% | 69.3% | 86.4% |
| Monaco | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 18.5% | 5.9% |
| Lille | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 5.7% | 4.6% |
| Lyon | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| Lens | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| Rennes | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Paris FC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Marseille | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Lorient | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Strasbourg | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Angers | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Auxerre | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Estac Troyes | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Le Havre | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Le Mans* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nice | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stade Brestois 29 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Toulouse | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
* Promoted this season or limited history in this league — the model gives it a cautious starting rating based on the league's own lower-percentile teams.
🇹🇷Turkish Super League
9 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 46.4% | 46.0% | 51.0% | 50.3% | 68.3% |
| Beşiktaş | 7.8% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 24.3% | 17.5% |
| Fenerbahçe | 39.7% | 39.3% | 30.0% | 23.0% | 10.2% |
| Trabzonspor | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 2.4% |
| Amed | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% |
| Çorum FK | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Başakşehir | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Göztepe | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erzurumspor FK | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alanyaspor | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eyüpspor | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gaziantep FK | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kasımpaşa | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kocaelispor | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Konyaspor | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rizespor | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samsunspor | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🇵🇹Portuguese Primeira Liga
9 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 26.5% | 26.4% | 23.4% | 63.5% | 64.2% |
| FC Porto | 5.4% | 5.2% | 10.5% | 19.9% | 26.9% |
| Sporting CP | 67.1% | 67.5% | 65.4% | 16.6% | 8.9% |
| Santa Clara | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Academico Viseu* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alverca | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arouca | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casa Pia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Estoril | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Estrela | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Famalicao | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| GIL Vicente | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maritimo | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Moreirense | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nacional | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rio Ave | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SC Braga | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vitória SC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
* Promoted this season or limited history in this league — the model gives it a cautious starting rating based on the league's own lower-percentile teams.
🇳🇱Dutch Eredivisie
10 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 86.6% | 86.6% | 88.1% | 80.4% | 76.1% |
| Ajax | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 11.9% |
| Feyenoord | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 5.5% |
| AZ Alkmaar | 1.7% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 12.3% | 3.6% |
| Twente | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.9% |
| Groningen | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Excelsior | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ADO Den Haag | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cambuur | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fortuna Sittard | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| GO Ahead Eagles | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Heerenveen | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| NEC Nijmegen | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| PEC Zwolle | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Telstar | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Utrecht | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Willem II | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🏴Scottish Premiership
11 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic | 54.5% | 56.5% | 70.2% | 79.0% | 87.0% |
| Rangers | 22.9% | 19.9% | 12.5% | 19.2% | 12.1% |
| Heart Of Midlothian | 13.5% | 14.0% | 9.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
| Aberdeen | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dundee | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dundee Utd | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Falkirk | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hibernian | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kilmarnock | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Motherwell | 5.3% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| ST Johnstone | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ST Mirren | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🇨🇭Swiss Super League
11 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lugano | 19.3% | 22.5% | 44.3% | 86.8% | 91.7% |
| BSC Young Boys | 16.8% | 23.4% | 19.7% | 7.7% | 7.2% |
| FC Sion | 36.4% | 28.5% | 24.8% | 5.3% | 1.0% |
| FC ST. Gallen | 9.8% | 11.8% | 6.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| FC Basel 1893 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| FC Luzern | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| FC Thun | 3.3% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| FC Vaduz | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| FC Zurich | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grasshoppers | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lausanne | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Servette FC | 9.9% | 5.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🇦🇹Austrian Bundesliga
10 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rapid Vienna | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 22.9% | 47.2% |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 10.7% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 35.9% | 41.4% |
| Lask Linz | 57.4% | 62.5% | 76.3% | 40.2% | 10.6% |
| Sturm Graz | 25.5% | 23.1% | 7.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| TSV Hartberg | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austria Lustenau | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austria Vienna | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grazer AK | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ried | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SCR Altach | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| WSG Wattens | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wolfsberger AC | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🇬🇷Greek Super League
7 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens FC | 57.1% | 56.2% | 42.4% | 65.1% | 66.0% |
| Olympiakos Piraeus | 22.2% | 23.2% | 29.0% | 15.9% | 24.8% |
| Panathinaikos | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% |
| PAOK | 17.0% | 17.0% | 23.9% | 10.9% | 2.2% |
| Aris Thessalonikis | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Asteras Tripolis | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Atromitos | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Iraklis 1908* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kalamata* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kifisia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Levadiakos | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| OFI | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Panetolikos | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Volos NFC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
* Promoted this season or limited history in this league — the model gives it a cautious starting rating based on the league's own lower-percentile teams.
🇺🇦Ukrainian Premier League
6 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 80.6% | 82.1% | 84.0% | 53.2% | 57.8% |
| Polessya | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 36.0% | 33.9% |
| FC Kharkiv | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% |
| Dynamo Kyiv | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 2.8% |
| Karpaty | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| LNZ Cherkasy | 3.7% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zorya Luhansk | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bukovyna* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chornomorets | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kolos Kovalivka | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kryvbas KR | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kudrivka | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Livyi Bereh | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Obolon'-Brovar | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Veres Rivne | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
* Promoted this season or limited history in this league — the model gives it a cautious starting rating based on the league's own lower-percentile teams.
🇷🇺Russian Premier League
12 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zenit | 53.1% | 51.9% | 28.8% | 31.6% | 70.7% |
| FC Krasnodar | 41.5% | 44.1% | 68.8% | 56.1% | 16.1% |
| Dynamo | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 4.1% | 6.1% |
| Spartak Moscow | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% |
| CSKA Moscow | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| Baltika | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| FC Rostov | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Krylia Sovetov | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Akhmat | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Akron | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dinamo Makhachkala | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| FC Orenburg | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fakel | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lokomotiv | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rodina Moskva | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rubin | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🇹🇷Turkish 1st League
11 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bursaspor | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.9% | 29.3% |
| Kayserispor | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 26.9% | 28.1% |
| Keçiörengücü | 19.6% | 19.6% | 24.8% | 40.2% | 24.4% |
| Iğdır FK | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 7.2% | 14.8% |
| Bandırmaspor | 8.0% | 8.3% | 15.3% | 9.5% | 1.4% |
| Bodrum FK | 15.1% | 15.4% | 11.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% |
| Batman Petrolspor* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Mardin 1969* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Esenler Erokspor | 52.7% | 52.5% | 39.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Muğlaspor* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Fatih Karagümrük | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sarıyer | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Pendikspor | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Antalyaspor | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Boluspor | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Manisa F.K. | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sivasspor | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vanspor FK | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ümraniyespor | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| İstanbulspor | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
* Promoted this season or limited history in this league — the model gives it a cautious starting rating based on the league's own lower-percentile teams.
A pure model, our own probabilities only, nothing blended in from outside. Home advantage applies to the actual home team in every match — unlike the World Cup, there are no neutral venues.