World Cup 2026
World Cup 2026, Goalence Forecast
Our Pi-Ratings model ran the whole tournament hundreds of millions of times. Below are every team's pre-tournament odds, and how those odds shift after each round.
Champion
The right-hand columns fill in as the tournament unfolds: once a round's matches finish, we re-run the model with the real results locked and post the new championship odds. Eliminated teams stay at 0%.
Pre = pre-tournament · MD1/2/3 = after group matchday 1/2/3 · R32/R16 = after Round of 32/16 · QF/SF = after quarter-/semi-finals.
| # | Team | Pre | MD1 | MD2 | MD3 | R32 | R16 | QF | SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇪🇸Spain | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 19.9% | 27.4% | 54.0% |
| 2 | 🇦🇷Argentina | 11.4% | 14.5% | 16.5% | 18.2% | 18.8% | 24.4% | 33.8% | 46.0% |
| 3 | 🇫🇷Franceout | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 15.2% | 22.4% | 0% |
| 4 | 🇧🇷Brazilout | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 11.7% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 🏴Englandout | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 11.2% | 16.3% | 0% |
| 6 | 🇵🇹Portugalout | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 7 | 🇨🇴Colombiaout | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 8 | 🇩🇪Germanyout | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 9 | 🇳🇱Netherlandsout | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 10 | 🇧🇪Belgiumout | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 0% | 0% |
| 11 | 🇯🇵Japanout | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 12 | 🇲🇦Moroccoout | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 0% | 0% |
| 13 | 🇨🇭Switzerlandout | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 6.0% | 0% | 0% |
| 14 | 🇭🇷Croatiaout | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 15 | 🇲🇽Mexicoout | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 16 | 🇳🇴Norwayout | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 5.4% | 0% | 0% |
| 17 | 🇺🇾Uruguayout | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 18 | 🇸🇳Senegalout | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 19 | 🇪🇨Ecuadorout | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 20 | 🇦🇹Austriaout | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 21 | 🇮🇷Iranout | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 22 | 🇺🇸USAout | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 23 | 🇦🇺Australiaout | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 24 | 🇹🇷Türkiyeout | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 25 | 🇩🇿Algeriaout | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 26 | 🇰🇷South Koreaout | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 27 | 🇨🇦Canadaout | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 28 | 🇸🇪Swedenout | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 29 | 🇪🇬Egyptout | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 30 | 🇵🇾Paraguayout | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 31 | 🏴Scotlandout | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 32 | 🇨🇿Czech Republicout | 0.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 33 | 🇨🇮Ivory Coastout | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 34 | 🇹🇳Tunisiaout | 0.2% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 35 | 🇬🇭Ghanaout | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 36 | 🇿🇦South Africaout | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 37 | 🇸🇦Saudi Arabiaout | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 38 | 🇧🇦Bosnia & Herzegovinaout | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 39 | 🇳🇿New Zealandout | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 40 | 🇵🇦Panamaout | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 41 | 🇺🇿Uzbekistanout | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 42 | 🇨🇩Congo DRout | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 43 | 🇨🇻Cape Verdeout | 0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 44 | 🇯🇴Jordanout | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 45 | 🇮🇶Iraqout | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 46 | 🇨🇼Curaçaoout | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 47 | 🇶🇦Qatarout | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 48 | 🇭🇹Haitiout | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Most-likely bracket
Our model's single most-likely path, groups to the final, with every score. Half these ties are coin-flips, so the real twists start here.
Pure model, our own probabilities only, nothing external blended in. Forecast-tracking: figures are logged before each round.