World Cup
France vs Sweden
Jun 30, 09:00 PM
3 – 0
France vs Sweden
Match Result
France Home Win→France Home Win
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 2.5→3 (Over 2.5)
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes→BTTS: No
Recorded before kickoff · never revised after
France Home Win
73%
Predicted score: 3-1
1Outcome Probabilities
Match ResultMatch Result (1X2)The traditional outcome market: Home win (1), Draw (X), or Away win (2). Goalence outputs three probabilities summing to 100% for every fixture.→
France Home Win
73%
Over/Under 2.5Over/Under 2.5A prediction market that resolves Over if the total goals in the match are 3 or more, Under if 2 or fewer. Computed from Goalence's two lambdas: P(home_goals + away_goals ≥ 3).→
Over 2.5 2.5
73%
Both Teams ScoreBTTS — Both Teams To ScoreA prediction market that resolves Yes if both teams score at least one goal in the match, No otherwise. Goalence outputs a BTTS probability for every fixture by integrating the Poisson distribution over scorelines.→
BTTS: Yes
72%
Confidence: ELITE.
2Most Likely Scores
3Knockout scenario
Published only for knockout fixtures
This is a knockout tie: a draw after 90 minutes goes to 30 minutes of extra time, and if still level, a penalty shootout.
If it goes to extra time (30 min):
If it goes to penalties:
Based on the squad's recent penalty conversion; a shootout still comes down largely to chance.
On paper, the penalty-shootout favorite is Sweden: 55.4%.
4Drama Profile
How both teams have handled pressure across the season.
Historical pattern, informational only.
Pre-match Outlook
Goalence's Pi-Ratings model gives France a clear edge against Sweden in World Cup — 73% confidence (ELITE tier) with an expected scoreline of 3-1.
Both teams are projected to score (72% BTTS yes), suggesting an open contest where neither defense fully shuts down the opponent.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
France vs Sweden — France Home Win: 73%.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.