🏆 UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 1
Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje
Sep 16, 07:00 PM · BayArena
✓ Recorded before kickoff
Bayer Leverkusen Home Win
76%
Predicted score: 2-1
1Outcome Probabilities
Match ResultMatch Result (1X2)The traditional outcome market: Home win (1), Draw (X), or Away win (2). Goalence outputs three probabilities summing to 100% for every fixture.→
Bayer Leverkusen Home Win
76%
Over/Under 2.5Over/Under 2.5A prediction market that resolves Over if the total goals in the match are 3 or more, Under if 2 or fewer. Computed from Goalence's two lambdas: P(home_goals + away_goals ≥ 3).→
Over 2.5 2.5
75%
Both Teams ScoreBTTS — Both Teams To ScoreA prediction market that resolves Yes if both teams score at least one goal in the match, No otherwise. Goalence outputs a BTTS probability for every fixture by integrating the Poisson distribution over scorelines.→
BTTS: Yes
59%
Confidence: ELITE.
2Most Likely Scores
Pre-match Outlook
Goalence's Pi-Ratings model gives Bayer Leverkusen a clear edge against Celje in UEFA Europa League — 76% confidence (ELITE tier) with an expected scoreline of 2-1.
Both teams are projected to score (59% BTTS yes), suggesting an open contest where neither defense fully shuts down the opponent.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje — Bayer Leverkusen Home Win: 76%.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.